OK, you got me. I’m shaking up this newsletter again, because 1) You asked for it on my “advisor brief” posts, and 2) this world is changing FAST.
From now on, this is *NOT MARKETING ADVICE, the financial advisor’s guide to building trust at scale. (and anyone else in finance tired of selling without results)
Let me know your thoughts on this structure in the comments.
Most advisors are great in the room. The ones who grow are great everywhere else too. Not because they became marketers, but because they learned a few rules.
Every week, I’ll bring:
1) THE ADVISOR BRIEF: Data and science to help you anticipate client questions and concerns to build content that speaks to your audience’s needs
2) READ THIS: One thing worth reading, and exactly why it's worth your time
3) THE PLAYBOOK: The content play, the hook, the email, the AI tool, or the framework that makes you impossible to ignore. And the reason behind why it works, so you can use it like an advisor, not a marketer.
From a former JPMorgan Private Banker who reached millions every month explaining finance the way a trusted friend would.
Not financial advice.
Definitely not marketing advice.
Just what works.
ADVISOR BRIEF: Week of March 16th
Data and science to help you anticipate client questions and concerns this week
War in the Middle East is reshaping every major financial conversation this week. US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering what the IEA is calling the biggest oil supply shock in recorded history. Brent crude surged 65% before pulling back. The Fed meets Tuesday-Wednesday with February PPI dropping the same Wednesday morning, and the debate has flipped from "how many cuts?" to "could the next move be a hike?"
Expect calls on three connected threads: energy-driven inflation fears, confusion about borrowing costs, and a spring housing window that may have just snapped shut.
Top 3 client questions:
"Oil went from $73 to $120. Is inflation going to get bad again? What does that mean for my spending plans?"
"I thought we were getting rate cuts. Now they're saying a hike is possible. What is happening?"
"Mortgage rates dipped below 6%, and now they're back up. Did we completely miss our window to buy a house?"
Context to keep handy:
Oil: Brent peaked at $120 (March 9), pulled back to ~$90-100. IEA called it the largest supply shock in history. Record 400M barrel SPR release is active. The U.S. is working to reopen the Strait, on a timeline of weeks, not days.
Rates: Market consensus is still a hold, not a hike, on March 18. The debate shifted from "June vs. September" to "hold vs. hike," but hold remains the overwhelming base case.
Housing: 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac: 6.11%, March 12) is still about half a percentage point below where it was one year ago. Existing sales activity rose in February, and supply is up 5% from a year ago.
Let’s break it down…
Conversation 1: The Oil Shock
Why it matters: The Strait carries roughly 20% of global oil. Brent ran from $73 (Feb 27) to $120 (March 9) and pulled back to ~$90-100. Clients feel it at the pump and want to know what's downstream.
Biases at play:
Availability Heuristic: tanker footage makes $150 feel inevitable.
Recency Bias: a 65% spike in two weeks pushes extrapolation over context.
Loss Aversion: fear of purchasing power erosion weighs 2x heavier than equivalent gains.
Likely Client Q's:
Business Owner: "My shipping costs jumped 30% in two weeks. Do I raise prices now or wait it out?"
Common Mistake: locking in long-term supply contracts at peak prices.
Retiree: "I lived through the 1970s oil shocks. This feels exactly like that. Should I be doing something different?"
Common Mistake: rotating to cash at an emotionally charged moment.
Young Family: "I'm spending $100 more a month on gas. We have zero wiggle room. Is there anything we should actually be doing?"
Common Mistake: pausing retirement contributions to absorb higher costs, creating long-term compounding losses.
Helpful context:
The Strait carries a fifth of global oil exports.
The IEA called this the largest supply shock in recorded history.
Brent: ~$73 (Feb 27) > $120 (March 9, +65%) > ~$90-100 as of mid-March
Global supply expected to fall 8 million barrels per day in March; Middle Eastern producers cut at least 10 million bpd
The IEA coordinated a 400 million barrel release from strategic reserves; estimated to cover ~20 days of Hormuz blockade
Conversation 2: The Fed & Borrowing Costs
Why it matters: Fed meets March 17-18. The narrative has shifted from "June vs. September for cuts" to "hold vs. hike." The dot plot and Powell's press conference are the most significant Fed communications of 2026 so far.
Expect to hear: "I thought we were getting rate cuts. Now they're saying the Fed might hike. What is actually going on?"
Biases at play:
Anchoring: clients locked onto 2-3 cuts in 2026 feel the September-at-earliest shift as a loss.
Availability Heuristic: "could the Fed hike?" is vivid and memorable; clients overweight the tail risk.
Present Bias: near-term borrowers feel urgency to act before rates "get worse."
Client Q's:
Business Owner: "We were almost done refinancing our commercial mortgage. Should we still push it through?"
Common Mistake: panic-locking long-term debt at potentially peak levels.
Retiree: "My plan assumed rates would be lower by now. If they hold all year, what does that mean for my fixed income?"
Common Mistake: chasing yield by rotating into longer-duration bonds as inflation expectations rise, adding duration risk at the wrong moment.
Corporate Professional: "My company is already doing budget reviews. Does this mean more layoffs are coming?"
Common Mistake: concentrating in company stock assuming their employer is insulated from a slowdown.
Key context:
February CPI: 2.4%
Jan PPI: +0.5% MoM, +2.9% YoY.
Goldman and Barclays both pushed first cut to September.
Overwhelming consensus is still a hold. The Fed has historically looked through supply-side energy shocks.
Key distinction: the Fed controls short-term rates; mortgages and business loans track the 10-year Treasury, not Fed funds directly.
Conversation 3: The Spring Housing Market
Why it matters: Rates reversed a months-long downtrend in days, climbing from a brief 5.98% low back above 6% as bond markets repriced for oil-shock inflation. The MBA survey (Wednesday) and new home sales (Thursday) are more hard data on whether buyers absorbed the move or stepped back.
Biases at play:
Anchoring: buyers anchored to sub-6% treat 6.2% as a loss, even though rates are still about half a percentage point below one year ago.
Loss Aversion: watching a window open and close produces paralysis or impulsive urgency.
Herding: purchase applications running 11% above last year creates pressure to act regardless of individual readiness.
Client Q's:
Young Family: "My rate lock expired when the war started and I have to requalify. Am I locked out of this market?"
Common Mistake: stretching above budget, sacrificing long-term stability for short-term urgency
Retiree: "We were going to list in April. With everything going on, should we just wait until fall?"
Common Mistake: waiting indefinitely for "perfect" conditions when the math on downsizing may already work.
Widowed / Divorced: "Everyone is telling me I have to sell this spring. But I just went through my husband's estate. Is this actually the right time?"
Common Mistake: acting on attorney timelines or market pressure rather than a clear financial plan.
Key numbers:
30-yr fixed (Freddie Mac): 6.11% March 12, up from 5.98% low; one year ago: 6.65%.
Feb existing home sales were up 1.7%; median price $398,000 (32nd consecutive month of YoY increases)
5% more existing homes on the market than a year ago
New home purchase mortgage applications +11% YoY
READ THIS: How Emotions Are Driving Investment Decisions
One thing worth reading, and exactly why it's worth your time
This report puts hard numbers on what you're already feeling in your client conversations, and gives you the language to name the dynamic out loud this week.
When the Fed headlines drop on Wednesday, the clients who check their portfolio daily will have already formed a reaction before you can reach them. This report gives you the language to name that pattern directly in a client email or call: "Nearly half of investors surveyed said they believe their own emotions will hurt them this year. Here's what we've built into your plan to make sure that doesn't happen to you."
That's a sentence that lands, and you can use it this week.
THE PLAYBOOK: How to convert when the work’s not converting
One practical thing you can use in your practice, in your content, or on a call
You’ve probably felt this already: posting consistently is not the same as growing your client list.
After talking with hundreds of advisors this year, I kept seeing the same pattern. You show up on LinkedIn, you get likes, you even get a few “great post” comments, and then your calendar stays exactly the same.
The instinct is to blame the content or the algorithm. In reality, your content is often doing its job: it’s creating visibility, trust, and credibility.
What’s missing is the bridge between “this person seems sharp” and “I’m ready to talk about my money with them.”
I created this offer guide to help you build that bridge. It walks you through how to turn a vague “let me know if you ever want to chat” into a clear, specific invitation that speaks to a problem your prospects are already losing sleep over.
The goal here is simple: when someone in your network finally has that moment, the job change, the housing decision, the retirement panic, they don’t just remember your posts. They know exactly what to raise their hand for and how to start the conversation with you.
Get it here: Guide to offers that convert prospects to clients
You didn't become a financial advisor to be a marketer. But your clients still need to hear from you between meetings. The most successful advisors are separating themselves by building trust at scale, serving 100 people like they serve one. We’re here to make that easier.
See you next week,
Augustus
Augustus Christensen
Founder & CEO
