Finally, maybe, the war fades from the front page this week, and the economy takes center stage.
Last week, your clients were asking about the pump. This week, they’re going to start asking about the job. Their job, their business, their mortgage, their bank.
The conflict is far from over. Oil prices, fuel costs, and diplomatic headlines are still very much alive. But the data drops this week pull the lens back from the Middle East and aim it directly at the American economy: how businesses are actually doing, what the banks are seeing inside people’s finances, and whether the housing market that started 2026 with real momentum can hold it.
Here’s the thing most people miss about weeks like this: clients don’t usually call you about earnings season. They don’t know what the Beige Book is, and they never will. They may not even call you after they see a CNBC alert that says “JPMorgan warns of a recession.”
But they will be worried. They may ask a friend who understands finance a little better than they do, but mostly, they’ll just stew.
Your job this week isn’t to explain what a Beige Book is. It’s to anticipate what those headlines will make your clients feel and be in their inbox with context and answers first.
ADVISOR BRIEF: Week of April 13th
Data and science to help you anticipate client questions and concerns this week
Calendar:
March Existing Home Sales (NAR) — Monday, April 13th
Goldman Sachs Earnings — Monday, April 13th
NFIB March Small Business Optimism Index — Tuesday, April 14th
Producer Price Index (PPI) — Tuesday, April 14th
JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo & Citigroup Earnings — Tuesday, April 14th
Federal Reserve Beige Book — Wednesday, April 15th
Morgan Stanley & Bank of America Earnings — Wednesday, April 15th
War and oil price developments — All week
Let’s break it down…
Most advisors are great in the room. The ones who grow are great everywhere else too. Not because they became marketers, but because they learned how to talk to 100 people online like they talk to one in a meeting.
Every week, I’ll bring:
1) THE ADVISOR BRIEF: Data and science to help you anticipate client questions and concerns to build content that speaks to your audience’s needs
2) READ THIS: One thing worth reading, and exactly why it's worth your time
3) THE PLAYBOOK: The content play, the hook, the email, the AI tool, or the framework that makes you impossible to ignore. And the reason behind why it works, so you can use it like an advisor, not a marketer.
From a former JPMorgan Private Banker who reached millions every month explaining finance the way a trusted friend would.
Not financial advice.
Definitely not marketing advice.
Just what works.
Conversation 1: Main Street’s Report Card
Why it matters: When finance people talk about the economy, they usually talk about the stock market or corporate earnings. But the economy most of your clients actually live in is built on small businesses. Small businesses employ nearly half the American private workforce and represent about 44% of US GDP, according to the US Chamber of Commerce. And this week, for the first time since the war started, we get a direct read on how they’re doing.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and the Producer Price Index release Tuesday morning. The Fed’s Beige Book comes out on Wednesday. Together, they give the most complete picture available so far of what’s actually happening on Main Street - hiring decisions, pricing, capital plans, consumer traffic, and the early echo of fuel costs working through business costs.
Biases at play:
Availability Heuristic: Business owner clients who are personally watching their fuel bills, supplier invoices, and profit margins will assume the rest of the business world is in worse shape than the aggregate data shows. What they see in their own operation becomes the mental shortcut for “how bad is it out there?” which is often more pessimistic than reality.
Herding/Social Proof: When business owner clients hear that other small businesses are pulling back on hiring or expansion, they reinforce and accelerate their own hesitance. “If no one is hiring, maybe I shouldn’t either.”
Loss Aversion: For a business owner, cost increases don’t feel like a change in the environment. They feel like money leaving the business that used to stay in the business.
Business Owners: Directly in the path of every data point this week. Fuel costs are cutting into margins. Hiring is getting harder. The Beige Book from early March already showed businesses contending with uncertainty, higher input prices, and slower consumer traffic. Business owners want someone to help them think through whether this is a temporary adjustment or a structural shift.
“Fuel and shipping are eating into my margin more than anything else right now. Is this something I should be planning around, or do I wait for it to calm down?”
“Is it a good time to expand, or should I be holding cash and waiting?”
“I was planning to bring on two people this spring. With everything going on, should I hold off?”
Young and Growing Families: Many have jobs at small businesses, or their household income depends on one. If small business hiring cools and hiring plans fall, the families closest to those employers feel it first, whether through a lost promotion, fewer hours, or a harder job search if a partner is between roles.
“My husband’s company is a small business. They’ve been slower than usual. Should we be worried about his job?”
“We were going to buy a house this spring. With things so uncertain, does it make sense to wait?”
Helpful context:
Small businesses have driven more than half of all net new job creation in the US since 2021. Between Q1 2021 and Q2 2024, firms with 249 or fewer employees accounted for 52.8% of total net job creation. (BLS)
The NFIB Optimism Index has held above its 52-year average of 98 for most of the past year.
Unfilled job openings at small businesses remain above historical averages. 32% reported vs. 24% historical average. There still aren’t enough qualified people.
The last Beige Book showed seven of 12 Fed districts still growing. But five districts reported flat or declining activity.
Costs surged for businesses last month. PPI climbed 0.7% in February.
Conversation 2: What the Banks Are Really Seeing
Why it matters: Earnings season starts this week. The banks go first, and they know more about your clients than anyone. They’re sharing what they’re seeing inside tens of millions of households and businesses: how much people are spending on their cards, how many are falling behind, whether businesses are borrowing to grow or pulling back, and what loan officers are hearing from their clients.
More than most earnings reports, these will spark big headlines about the broader economy.
Biases at play:
Negativity Bias/Loss Aversion: Bad news from a big, trusted institution like JPMorgan feels authoritative. When a bank the size of JPMorgan says something sounds cautious, it registers to clients as “the people who know everything are worried.” That emotional weight is disproportionate to what the statement usually means in context.
Herding: Clients who already feel anxious about the economy will use bank earnings commentary as social proof that their anxiety is justified. “Even the banks are worried” becomes a reason to act, often in ways that don’t serve their long-term interests.
Helpful context:
Households are spending more than they’re earning. Personal income fell 0.1% in February while spending rose 0.5%. Real disposable income dropped 0.5%. (BEA)
The savings rate is weak. 4.0% in February, down from 4.5% in January, and roughly half the long-run historical average of ~8.4%. (BEA)
4.8% of all debt is delinquent. The flow into serious delinquency (90+ days) rose from 1.70% in Q4 2024 to 3.26% in Q4 2025, but heavily driven by student loans (0.70% to 16.19%) (Fed)
Conversation 3: The Spring Housing Market Gets Its First Grade
Why it matters: Housing is one of those topics that touches almost every client in some way, whether they own, rent, plan to buy, plan to sell, or are sitting on a house that’s a huge portion of their net worth. And the spring housing market is the one everyone watches, because spring is when inventory comes out, buyers get serious, and the data starts to tell us whether the year is going to open up or stay locked.
The March Existing Home Sales report is released Monday morning. It’s the first sales data to fully capture what happened to buyer activity after mortgage rates, which had been falling toward 6% and even below in late February, reversed hard and climbed back toward 6.5% in March and early April.
Biases at play:
Anchoring: Clients who saw rates briefly touch 6.0% in late February (or even those who remember 3% five years ago) have anchored to that as the “fair” rate. Today’s rates feel worse by comparison, even though meaningfully lower than a year ago and dramatically lower than the 7%+ rates of 2023–2024. The anchor distorts the reference point and makes current rates feel like a step backward rather than an improvement from the recent past.
Young and Growing Families: Most likely to be actively weighing a first home purchase or a move-up. Rate sensitivity is highest for this group because they have the least equity cushion and the longest mortgage ahead of them. Every time rates bounce, the math on affordability shifts, and the emotional calculus of “now or wait?” starts over.
“We got pre-approved in February, and our rate was lower. Now they’re telling us our payment is higher. This is so frustrating.”
“Are home prices going to come down, or are we just going to be priced out forever?”
Retirees and Pre-Retirees: Many retirees are considering downsizing, moving closer to family, or liquidating a primary residence as part of a retirement income plan. In a market with low inventory and a lock-in effect, selling and rebuying are complicated.
“We were thinking of downsizing this year. Is this a bad time? What do we do about a mortgage on the next place when rates are this high?”
“Our house has gone up so much in value. Should we sell now before things get worse, or wait?”
Helpful context:
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.37% as of April 9th, 2026, down from 6.46% the prior week, and meaningfully below the 6.62% of one year ago. (Freddie Mac)
Existing home sales activity has been running well below historical norms for more than a year. Sales in February were roughly 20% below the 5-year pre-pandemic average. Even a “good” spring would likely still be relatively slow. (NAR)
Housing inventory is rising, but slowly. Active listings up 8% YoY as of February, but still far below pre-pandemic years. Only nine states have returned to pre-pandemic inventory levels. (ResiClub)
The median existing home price was $398,000 in February, the 32nd consecutive month of annual price increases, but up only 0.3% YoY. (NAR)
Keeping it short this week
Something we’ve been building for a while is finally ready, and I wanted you to hear it here first.
Later this week, Share Scoops is officially launching. New website. New platform. The whole thing.
For those who are newer here: Share Scoops is the drafting brain built for financial advisors. You open it, see what your clients are probably thinking about this week, and walk out with a client email, a few social posts, or a newsletter draft, all in your voice, in minutes. No blank page problems. No marketing agency. No content that sounds like everyone else’s.
We did the reading. You do the talking.
If you want to be part of the launch celebration, reply with COUNT ME IN, and we’ll make sure a launch gift finds its way to you.
More soon.
Not marketing advice. Just what works.
See you next week,
Augustus
Augustus Christensen
Founder & CEO
